- NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Russia's Arctic Dilemma: Permafrost Thaw Threatens Russia's Ambitions
Climate change in the Arctic is impacting Russia's Arctic plans. As temperatures rise, thawing permafrost has increased the cost of repairs to existing facilities and infrastructure, especially runways. The rate of construction of new facilities more suited to the changing climate situation has also increased Russia's expenditures, which impacts the execution of their strategy.
Sanctions Delay Chinese Equipment to Russian Arctic Energy Projects
Chinese investments in Russian Arctic energy projects are facing complications due to sanctions on Russia.
The Ice Curtain: Kola Peninsula Part 2: Expanded Maritime Facilities
GEOINT analysis confirms Russian public declarations to expand the storage facilities at Okolnaya submarine support base and Gadzhiyevo submarine base.
The Ice Curtain: Kola Peninsula Part 1: Slow Modernization of Severomorsk-1 Air Base
Upgrades at Severomorsk-1 Air base increases Russia's operational readiness, presence, and capabilities in the northwest Arctic region, improving domain awareness and operational capacity around the Kola Peninsula. Further upgrades would expand operational capacity towards the GIUK-N Gap. However, GEOINT analysis shows slow construction progress.
The Ice Curtain: Enhanced Defense of Russia's Western Arctic
Russia's military posture and the deployment of S-400s in its Western Arctic reflects the Soviet legacy of bastion defense comprised of "concentric circles" designed to protect strategic territory.
The Ice Curtain: Russia's Military Moves Further North
Alexandra Land provides air-sea-land capabilities that reinforce Russia’s multi-layered maritime and air denial power; safeguard the Kola Peninsula which is home to Northern Fleet headquarters and Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The Ice Curtain: Tiksi Airbase; Many Russian Announcements, Little Equipment
Current imagery does not show evidence of the Russian government's plans to expand Tiksi Airbase into a Northern Fleet air defense base, complete with 11 interconnected structures, and a regiment of S-400 surface-to-air missiles.
The Ice Curtain: Protecting the Arctic Motherland
A complex layered coastal defense arrangement on Kotelny Island allows Russia to better defend and to deny aerial, maritime, or land access to NATO or U.S. forces.